GEOFF BENNETT: Let's shift our focus now to a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released today.

It shows Democrats holding an eight-point lead among likely voters.

And with independents, that lead grows to 13 points.

Here to break down the poll results and what it all means is Domenico Montanaro of NPR.

It's always great to see you.

DOMENICO MONTANARO, Political Editor, NPR: Great to be here.

GEOFF BENNETT: So, in this final push, Democrats have what appears to be an enthusiasm advantage; 71 percent of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic to vote.

Just 61 percent of Republicans and 48 percent of independents say the same.

So what does that suggest about the state of this race?

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Yes, look, I think, overall, it's a lot of what we have seen, which is that Democrats are probably favored to win the House at this point.

I think it'd be a shock if Democrats didn't pick up the House.

You would have to see a polling error that was bigger than probably anything we have seen in modern polling times.

So, that plus-eight advantage on the generic congressional ballot is really important, because, when you look historically from all of the midterm elections back to the turn of the century, the party with the edge on the congressional ballot has gone on to make gains.

So that's where people think things are headed at this point.

The Senate's a little bit different because you're talking about a place where you have got so many Republican seats, so many red seats where Democrats are going to have to try to win in places where Trump, frankly, won by double digits.

Now, I will say there are a couple caution flags for Democrats in just how big their gains might be, because when you look at pro-Democratic voting groups who say that they're very enthusiastic about voting, when you look at groups that are under 45 years old, younger voters, only 42 percent say that they are very enthusiastic to vote.

Nonwhite voters -- clearly, Democrats need Latinos, Black voters -- only 53 percent saying that they're very enthusiastic.

White women with college degrees, who are one of the highest-propensity voting groups, only 56 percent saying that they are very enthusiastic to vote.

In 2018, white women with college degrees were a little higher than that.

You compare that to pro-Republican groups, groups that give Trump a pretty high approval rating in general, MAGA supporters, white evangelical Christians, white women without college degrees, and you can see there on your screen all higher than those pro-Democratic groups.

Now, we have also seen a political realignment in this country where those college-educated white voters have moved more toward Democrats.

Older voters have also moved more toward Democrats, and older voters, 71 percent in our survey, say that they are very enthusiastic.

I just think that midterm elections are such a volatile stew because you have such lower turnout in these elections; 42 percent on average people turn out to vote of registered voters since 1992.

Compare that to about 60 percent in presidential elections.

So polls are a little tricky in trying to figure out just what the shape of the electorate is going to be.

GEOFF BENNETT: And with President Trump effectively nationalizing so many of these races by telling voters to pretend he's on the ballot, that could be potentially problematic for Republicans because, according to this poll, 40 percent of likely voters approve of the job he's doing as president; 59 percent disapprove.

At the same time, you have got 44 percent of people saying their vote is mostly a vote against President Trump; 21 percent say it's for him.

So what does that say about the Trump effect in all of this?

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Right.

And Trump has told people to pretend that he's on the ballot.

GEOFF BENNETT: Right.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: So, in that 21 percent, if you look at the exit polls from the 2024 presidential election, 55 percent of people said that their vote was a vote for Trump.

So it's not exactly translating to everyone that they're saying that, oh, yes, this is a vote for Trump for the people that need it to be a vote for Trump.

And that's why Trump is out there in these red states, in Texas, in Kansas, trying to rally those troops, trying to get Republicans out to the polls, because Republicans know that if they don't get Republicans out, a wave that could be small with two seats maybe that flip to Democrats, could wind up with six or seven seats that flip to Democrats if you don't have enough Republicans who go out to the polls in places where there are a lot of Republican voters.

So I think that's going to be a huge key in this election when we're watching that turnout.

GEOFF BENNETT: As the president and as his administration takes steps that in many ways undermine confidence in the elections -- you have the DOJ filing this lawsuit in Alaska to stop the count if the Republican there loses, you have got the 20,000 voters or votes in California that they're trying to stop from being counted -- how is that playing with voters?

DOMENICO MONTANARO: Yes, I think, first and foremost we should note that trust in state and local elections is pretty high generally across all political parties.

Even seven in 10 Republicans say that they have trust that the elections will be fair and accurate; 88 percent of Democrats say that the trust is there.

When you look at whether their candidates should accept the results if they lose, seven in 10 Republicans, nine in 10 Democrats say that.

Now, there's a 20-point gap, you might notice, right?

And that means that, if we're stuck waiting for election results -- and, remember, when we go to bed, or when other people go to bed on election night, there are going... GEOFF BENNETT: Normal people.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: There are going to be a lot of election results left on the table.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: One of those places is Alaska.

Alaska was the last place to be reporting their election results in 2024.

It takes a very long time.

We could be waiting three weeks if the race is really close there.

And that could mean we're waiting for the Senate to be decided based on Alaska.

We know that the Justice Department is already looking to file a lawsuit about trying to mitigate what could be a Democratic win there because you have two people named Dan Sullivan on the ballot, something that's already been litigated in the state of Alaska by the Alaska Supreme Court.

But there's going to be room for misinformation clearly, when you have a quarter of Republicans saying that I don't know that my candidate should accept the results of the election, I think they should probably or definitely contest those.

So I think that we are -- I hope it doesn't happen, but it's there's the possibility that we're in for a lot of really complicated things that happen, a lot of misinformation that we're going to have to try to sift through and make clear for people.

GEOFF BENNETT: Domenico Montanaro of NPR, always great to speak with you.

DOMENICO MONTANARO: You're welcome.

Thank you.