♪♪ Scott: On September 14th, California will decide whether to recall Governor Gavin Newsom.

Today, we asked two veteran political consultants, Robert Stutzman and David Townsend, to share their views, not only on the recall but on the current issues shaping the future of California.

David, what will determine whether or not Governor Newsom survives this recall campaign?

David: Donald Trump.

Scott: Donald Trump?

Why Donald Trump?

David: Because, um, ultimately, this will not be about Gavin Newsom.

This will be about whether or not California has a Republican governor that Trump can run around bragging about.

This-— The-— Unfortunately, uh- or fortunately, depending on your point of view-— politics has become so tribal now that, um, you know, this is going... this is going to be ultimately about Trump.

Scott: What-— Rob, what's your reaction, uh- Rob: Well-— Scott: to David saying that this is a Trump election?

Rob: Well, I'm surprised to hear David say that cause I think it's the miscalculation that the Newsom campaign keeps making.

I mean, what will save Newsom is math.

There's twice as many Democrats almost as there are Independents and Republicans combined.

What he needs is Democrats to vote.

What the Newsom campaign has been doing, it's trying to equate this recall with the insurrection of January 6th and the... the "MAGA" view of the world.

And that doesn't seem to be working.

Uh, what this recall is clearly about is what's happening in the state when it comes to quality of life.

Obviously, COVID has had a big impact on this.

And I think...

I think if the bar was as low as it is in California in other states, there'd be a lot of governors under recall.

Newsom gets the misfortune of... of having a... a... a low threshold for what it takes to recall a governor, so he's under recall.

But there's issues of rising crime and homelessness, uh, energy prices, energy reliability, uh, rising, uh, housing prices...

There's a lot of quality-of-life issues.

That's what people are thinking about every day.

Not Donald Trump.

And I think this is the miscalculation that Newsom who-— is making in that Democrats no longer can do the resistance to Trump.

Trump's out of the White House.

They have to take responsibility for how this state's being governed because they are completely in charge.

David: No, I...

I'd like to agree with Rob on the... the fact that it's all about math.

Um, the problem that the Republicans have-— The reason I mentioned Trump is, the problem that the Republicans have is as long as Trump is in charge of the party, California Republicans will continue to... to live in the wasteland.

And, uh, I mean, you're talking about less than 30% of the voters are... are Republicans.

If Republicans get a 100% turnout, they're still only going to get 30% of the vote.

Scott: Some would say-— David, some would say that Republicans have been in the wasteland way before Trump.

David: Right.

Scott: Part of the question that we want to talk about today is whether or not they ever leave the wasteland.

David: Well, I don't think they do as long as Trump is the leader of the party.

I mean, Biden beat Trump by over 30 points uh, in... in California.

The- Like I said, the legislature is two-thirds... more than two-thirds Democrat, both houses.

And Republicans haven't had a... a statewide victory since 2006, which Rob was part of, actually.

And, uh, and so I... I-— You know, the... the... the-— It's a math problem.

You can... You can have a 100-— Like I said, you can have a 100% turnout of Republican voters, and it's still not going to be enough to recall Newsom.

And that's why I said Trump.

It's... it's because we are so tribal now.

Um, and... and Republicans can't break free of that-— Look at their candidates.

Their candidates are really weak.

Rob: So, I...

I...

I agree with...

I agree with David on his overarching analysis of the Republican problem in California.

I am a extremely anti-Trump Republican.

I think he's devastating, uh, to our party.

I don't recognize a lot of our... our party anymore.

Uh, and I don't know, in a state like California, how you can grow until Trump is clearly behind us.

And he's not clearly behind us, obviously.

He's... he's... he's the biggest loser Republicans have had since Herbert Hoover, in losing the White House and both chambers all at once.

But he still obviously has a grip.

Having said that, this recall is a very unique election.

Gavin Newsom's name doesn't appear at-— next to any of these Republicans.

It appears by itself with "Yes" or "No" on recall.

And it's a very unique dynamic.

It's purely, literally a ref-— Scott: W-— What is it that gives...

Rob: referendum.

Scott: What is it that gives you optimism, Rob, at all, that somehow, in this recall that the... the opponents of Governor Newsom...

Governor Newsom can thread the needle?

Rob: Well, to be... to be clear, I don't know that it's optimism.

I'm not at all convinced this is necessarily a good idea.

I mean, if a candidate does win, or if... if Newsom is recalled, whoever wins is in for a very difficult 10 months in a legislature that can override their vetoes, basically wait him out until next November's election.

I think this is more interesting about how problematic this has become for Newsom.

The polling is clear that there is Democrat apathy.

They don't feel strongly about him.

They're not energized to come turn out for him.

They clearly don't see this as some type of Trumpian threat to take over the state.

That may change by the time ballots go out in the next couple of weeks.

Newsom has a lot of money to spend, but he's been spending money on this narrative.

Uh, I think what is remarkable is the dissatisfaction that is starting to arise throughout the state with its current governance.

And it is purely controlled by... by Democrats.

And that doesn't nec-— Scott: But before-— Rob: Go ahead.

Scott: Before we... before we get there, um, I just wanted to ask you-— What is the threshold, Rob, for the recall?

Cause many of us don't understand quite the mechanics.

Cause there really are two questions, not just one on recall.

Rob: Two... two questions.

One: Recall Gavin Newsom, "“Yes"” or "“No?

"” Second will be a list of... of candidates that have qualified for the ballot.

There's probably about five or six of them, by the time people get ballots, that might be recognizable to them.

There's no famous or known Democrat, but there's nine people with Democrat next to their name.

And whoever gets the plurality-— So if Newsom is recalled, it's very likely who takes his place has no more than 30%, if that, of the vote.

Scott: And for... for Newsom, it's merely, uh, 51%.

If 51% say, uh, "No," then he's up.

Right?

Rob: The-— It... it-— The-— He is out.

Scott: So, David, I want to ask you-— Rob: 50% plus one.

Scott: I want to ask David-— David, is it a mistake for the Democrats not to have anybody on the ballot as a fail-safe?

David: No, because the... the... the only time you put somebody on the ballot is when the polling is so bad that you, you know, you... you know your person's absolutely going to go down.

Um, you know, look at, the polling I've seen-— We just pulled a statewide poll out of the field a couple of days ago.

I mean, Newsom... Newsom-— The... the... the recall is going to fail by double digits.

Uh, this is not going to be close.

Um, you know, the... the previous polls that we've seen out there-— First of all, one of them, the Emerson poll, they talked to all voters.

They didn't factor in at a lower turnout that Rob was talking about.

Um, yeah, I think...

I think there's no question that Republicans are gonna-— are fired up to go out there and... and, uh, and stick it to, uh, Newsom.

But there's just so many more Democrats that we don't need, you know, as... as high a enthusiasm level, number one.

Number two: Turn out, over the years, is getting ballots to people and getting them to return them.

And well, fortunately now in California, everybody gets a ballot in the mailbox.

So, it's pretty easy to vote.

And after they've gotten their 15th call and seen their 20th TV commercial from the '"No" On Recall,' the-— I think the...

I think the democratic turnout is going to be fine.

It's not going to be equal to the Republican percentagewise, but numbers-wise, it's going to be greater than the, uh, Republican.

And all the stuff I'm seeing around independent voters is they're not for the recall.

Uh, all the polling I've seen- The... they're not, uh, for the recall.

So, this is a... this is a, really a sad, lame attempt to try to get the governorship through some kind of, like Rob said, you know, 30% of the vote, um, à la Schwarzenegger.

Scott: So... so David, let... let's assume that the scenario you describe is what happens on September 14th.

Should Democrats feel reassured by that outcome?

David: Well, let's put it this way.

Newsom, if he does prevail, he will get a bounce.

He'll be able to claim, you know, that he's been vindicated, so he will get a bounce.

He will likely be reelected because, again, and... and there's-— I don't see any path- and... and I don't think Rob does either-— any path for a Republican to get elected statewide.

I mean, outside shot that maybe Anne Marie Schubert as an independent maybe gets through, but that's a... that's a-— It's a... it's a-— Scott: And that's for the attorney general race.

Right?

David: Attorney general, yeah.

So... so uh, yeah.

No, I think that, uh, Newsom will go on to serve a second term.

And then who knows what after that?

But, um...

This is, you know, this is-— The... the... the dynamic of Gray Davis-— Gray's numbers were much worse, first of all.

Second of all, the choice was Gray or Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was a international, you know, known star who was married to a Kennedy.

That gave a lot of Democrats, the, you know, the OK to vote for Schwarzenegger cause he's obviously gotta be okay cause he's married to a Kennedy.

So, very different dynamic.

This one is, um, you know, the- Look... look at, remember who voters are.

You know, voters are highly educated.

They're homeowners.

You know, they're... they're smart enough to look at this and say, "If I vote against Newsom, I'm going to get one of these guys?

I don't think so."

Scott: Well... well, let me-— Rob, let's, uh, hear from you on this.

The-— Let's assume that David's scenario is correct.

That... that success, or that victory, that comes to Gavin Newsom and the Democrats is in the face of continuing and growing dissatisfaction on the ability of government at all levels to address issues like homelessness, housing, infrastructure, uh, water, and it's a 1-party state, by and large.

The... the Republicans, no disrespect, really aren't a factor at the state level, um, in terms of being able to influence policy decisively.

What happens... what happens, uh, into the future with the Democrats still remaining in control of all the levers at the state?

Rob: Well, I...

I think you'll see more difference between Democrats.

I mean this is something David works on quite a bit.

Uh, you know, I think the... the... the progressive versus more moderate, uh, Democrat factions is really, I think, what defines the future of how the state gets governed.

And I think you're seeing a lot of nervousness about how far the... the very progressive, uh, policies, particularly around criminal justice and... and... and crime, uh, homelessness... To the eye test, I don't think there's any Californian that thinks any progress has been made.

And what you can get is a pretty quick snapback on those issues.

I think it's... it's... it's difficult for me to imagine the scenario where that slap-— snapback comes all the way to a Republican governor next year.

I may agree with David on that.

That's going to be very difficult.

But is there room somewhere in the middle for something more interesting to happen?

And in California, you know, the wildcard in these statewide politics is that we are a state full of rich people, and famous people, and rich and famous people.

And, uh, you know, money is... is necessary in California like no other state in order to raise name ID.

And so, there's always this interesting scenario of the outsider, I think, coming to, uh, an opportunity, uh, that may seem, um, target -rich and ripe for them.

I-— Look, the recall could end up being double digits.

I...

I suspect, based on the lack of Democrat enthusiasm, it's single digits.

And... and that Newsom, I think, very likely does beat it.

But if it's 52 -48, he doesn't come out of that strong at all.

That's weak and embarrassing, uh, especially against these, uh, you know, with these candidates that are opposite him.

So, I...

I don't, I... I-— We don't-— I don't think we know until we get there, what kind of political shape the governor really will be in heading into the... the normal election year next year.

Scott: Uh, when... when you look at the party itself and its dominance over the entire state, are we at a... at a point where it is that, um, that there is a fracturing that... that's taking place?

Let me give you an example.

In the city of San Francisco right now, the current DA-— who ran on a very progressive platform related to, uh, changing law enforcement and changing how the DA's office pursues incarceration and prosecutions and things like that, all, straight down the line, uh, progressive points of view-— is in San Francisco, ground zero in the United States of the Progressive Movement, faces two recalls.

Two recalls.

Rob: Yeah.

Scott: What-— Is that just an isolated incident, or is that the canary in the cave-— Rob: Oh yeah, yeah.

Scott: for something else that's going on?

Rob: It's not isolated.

The... the... the DA in Los Angeles, who's just as progressive and was formerly DA of San Francisco, is also facing a... a recall, uh, attempt.

So, this is the snapback that's going on, but it's happening in these, you know, in San Francisco-— obviously a very liberal laboratory-— where-— There's an old joke about, you know, liberals getting mugged become conservatives.

Well, there's a lot of liberals literally getting mugged in San Francisco.

And there's a reaction to that.

You're losing basic societal order when you have to step over, uh, human feces on a sidewalk, and watch, uh, a Walgreens get looted in broad daylight.

You don't have a sense that there's societal order in your city.

And there will... there will be dramatic consequences for politicians in locales like that, I believe throughout the state, until there is order that is restored and people feel like there is order.

Does that ever reach on statewide level?

I think it is to some degree and that this recall is, according to the polling, is looking a little tougher than I think anyone ever imagined.

Uh, so there is a-— There-— I think there's a declining lack of confidence, uh, in this, in the leadership of the state.

How that-— Does that flip the state to Republicans?

I don't think so.

I think that's a bridge too far, at least in the... in the short term.

But does it provide an opportunity to moderate these Democrat majorities, and what they're doing in the legislature?

And even in statewide office.

I mean, Newsom came in as a progressive barnstormer with his eye on the White House, uh, and not necessarily, I think, in touch with Californians which is why you have this lack of enthusiasm for him.

Scott: David, that... that really raises a question.

Has kind of the center of elected democratic leadership kind of got out in front of the electorate that sent them there in the first place?

Because there does seem to be a perpetual dissatisfaction with the execution and the outcomes of government here in California.

David: Well, I mean, as Rob pointed out, I've spent the last 20 years being the political advisor to the new Democrats, or the moderate Democrats, and... and I agree with Rob that in California, we-— the 3-party system is really Republicans, moderates, and Progressives, um, and, uh, the moderates and the Progressive-— Scott: Hold on.

Say that one more time.

I haven't heard that before.

David: Well, the-— Scott: Republicans, Democrats, and Progressives?

David: No, no.

Republicans, democratic moderates, and democratic progressives.

Scott: Ah.

David: And, um, you know, that's what Rob was referencing and... and... and we've been fighting that fight, uh, for the last, you know, 20 years in California, um, trying to maintain a more moderate, um, you know, uh, governance structure among Democrats.

We've been pretty successful, um, but I- You know, look at, you... you... you can't be a Democrat and... and have a two-thirds ownership of both houses of the legislature, and every constitutional officer, and saying, "Boy, are we doing a great job on homelessness!

Boy, are we doing a great job on housing!

Boy, are we doing a great job on crime!"

No, we're doing-— We're not doing a good job on any of that stuff and it's because our own politics gets in the way.

But... but, and so what-— That's why, you know, that's why I'm saying that as... as long as the Republicans can't put forth any kind of a national program, or leaders, or whatever, that are in any way, shape, or form, reasonable, like Rob, um, then... then we're going to have this terrible disfunction.

I mean, the... the, uh, uh, you know...

I said the other day that, uh, uh, that the big-city mayors in California, they're going to be held accountable for homelessness for the rest of their natural lives.

Uh, whether it's their fault or not, it's on their watch and... and... and it's... it's so out of control that, you know, you... you don't-— There's no-— Number one issue on every poll we do is homelessness.

Scott: Uh, let... let me ask you both- and Rob, I'll ask you to respond first to this-— David, with regards to, uh, moderate Democrats, uh, and Rob, um, you're a Never Trumper.

Some would call you, David, a "DINO," a Democrat In Name Only, and Rob, you, a "RINO," uh, a Republican In Name Only.

Has the-— Have your respective parties gotten to a place where they're never going to come back to their historic centers, and, um, frankly, um, where both of you represent from, um, is kind of on its last legs?

Because that's what the Progressives were going-— Rob: Yeah, I...

I mean, this is the great question.

We're obviously going through a transformation realignment.

Some of it's post-Cold War, uh, some of this has been brewing for a while.

Um, with the, um, you know, with... with the Democrats losing, uh, I think, you know, white/blue collar that have been drawn to, uh, a Trumpian type of... of message, you know, which frankly, a guy like Mike Huckabee was... was out there running on, you know, before Trump.

And Pat Buchanan before that.

So, the question, you know, this question of what happens to one party depends on also the other party.

Cause it doesn't-— Neither one, you know, exists in a vacuum.

And I...

I don't know the outcome, I think, until we get well into the decade ahead of us, a couple of cycles in, certainly the next presidential cycle, to see who's going to control the middle.

But whoever controls the middle is going to be the ma-— is going to end up being the majority party.

Now it may go back and forth, because who has the middle may go back and forth.

But Joe Biden's president because he has the middle.

Uh, but you still had four congressional districts in California that voted for Biden vote for Republicans, uh, elected Republicans to their congressional seats.

Scott: Actually... actually, that's an interesting point because if... if I recall correctly, uh, two of those seats, at least, went to Korean Americans.

Is that... Is that correct?

Rob: Asian American women, yes.

Scott: Yeah.

Asian American women.

And, uh, David, there has been a... a, at least, documented, or noted, movement, it appears-— slight-— of people from the AAPI community, as well as the Hispanic community, being a bit more receptive to conservative politics.

Is... is that, um, something that is, from your perspective, real, or is that just an anomaly?

David: No, I think it's real.

I...

I, you know, I...

I think, uh, you know, the... the Democratic Party is not a party.

It is a group of caucuses and... and... and the caucuses are very vocal and strong in terms of their issues and what they care about.

And so that... so that's kind of how we roll.

The Republicans didn't even have a platform last time.

I mean, that... that just blows my mind.

Um, I mean, usually we have the platform and ignore it, but at least we have a platform.

Um, and... and so, no, I think that-— Look at, when you're looking at immigrants, um, and, uh, uh, and people of color in many cases, um, you know, it's a... it's a lot about family and it's a lot about, um, the economy.

Virtually every moderate Democrat in the legislature comes from, uh, areas of the state that are economically challenged.

Uh, you know, I like to say that moderate, uh, or new Democrats are economic Democrats.

Um, you know, they're... they're... they're, you know, pro-social issues, but they're also pro -jobs.

Um, and that's what separates them from Progressives.

Uh, most-— And... and frankly, the... the moderates were winning most-— You know, there's been two or three special elections.

There was one just last night in, uh, Ohio.

The... the moderate candidate prevailed over the Progressive.

Um, you know, so, um, I-— And I think, uh, Rob...

Rob would agree with this, too, is that, uh, "RINO" and "DINO" are the-— probably the two nicest things anybody's ever said about us...

Uh, I can give you a lot more, but it's not allowed on, you know, the air.

Um, so I-— Yeah, so, and this has been going on in the Democratic Party, at least, forever.

I mean, Alan Cranston led a challenge of Progressives, you know, back in the day.

Uh, you know, Tom Hayden left his-— led a group of Progressives that tried to bolt from the party.

But I-— You know, but politics tends to settle in the middle, for, mostly, people just want government to leave them alone.

Um, so, it always comes back to the middle cause you win in the middle.

Rob's right.

Scott: Well, Rob, is that effectively, uh, a statement that says that while we have this aggressive progressive reputation of California, that the voters actually, um, may not completely fill out that definition?

And, if that is true, how is it that Republicans capitalize on that in the future in order to keep them competitive here?

Rob: Well, I think-— Look, the... the legislature is far more progressive than I think the electorate is.

I think the governor, at times, has been far more progressive than the voters.

In fact, he's flaunted the voters' will at... at times.

You know, single-handedly deciding he's gonna evoke a moratorium on the death penalty when the voters had just affirmed it on a statewide ballot.

Eventually, this becomes opportunity for Republicans.

We're going to go through a once-in-a-decade process, you know, Scott, coming up, where we redraw legislative maps and congressional maps.

And I...

I...

I think there may be some opportunity for Republicans to claw back a few seats in the legislature.

That doesn't make them instantly relevant until they get below-— they can recapture at least over a... a third, uh, of each chamber.

But, you know, as bad as things have been, that would be some momentum, especially coming off the momentum of winning four congressional seats and an assembly seat, uh, in... in last year's election.

But it's going to be incremental, uh, I think, incremental real estate claimed back, uh, by... by Republicans.

And I actually think the Democrat party will respond to it.

The things that David's talking about and works on, I think once that starts to happen, it moderates the Democrats that control Sacramento.

Uh-— Scott: In our final moments, uh, quick question for both of you, and David, I'll start with you.

And that is: Name the top three issues that will define the 2022 elections.

David: Homelessness, housing, and income inequality.

Scott: Okay.

Rob?

David: Well, and crime.

I'm sorry, I'm going to go for four.

Scott: Alright.

Rob: I was...

I was-— Yeah, I was gonna lead with-— Scott: You never... you never color within the lines anyway, David.

David: I...

I can't color in the lines.

Scott: Rob?

Rob: Certainly crime, and homelessness, and... and unfortunately, I still think COVID fallout, uh, could be an issue that defines our politics next year.

Scott: Hm.

Alright.

Well, gentlemen, uh, look forward to maybe having this discussion again when, uh, all of the dust is settled.

Thank you-— Rob: Good to be with you, Scott.

Scott: ...for your observations and, uh, I know that you all will be wrestling with each other, so, uh, uh, try to, uh, play by the rules.

And that's our show.

Thanks to our guests, and thanks to you for watching Studio Sacramento.

I'm Scott Syphax.

See you next time right here on KVIE.

♪♪ ♪♪ Scott Syphax: All episodes of Studio Sacramento, along with other KVIE programs, are available to watch online at kvie.org/video.